UFC246 goes off at the T-Mobile Arena in Paradise, Nevada on Saturday January 18th and there’s a cracking fight at the top of the bill. Connor McGregor vs Donald Cerrone – McGregor vs Cowboy as it’s being billed – brings together two experienced MMA battlers in what should be a thriller.
It’s less than a year since McGregor announced his retirement from the Octagon and while he has been absent for some time, he starts as clear favourite going into the first bell.
Moneyline Result Odds
In the straight result betting, Conor McGregor gets us underway at odds of 1.30 with PowerPlay and that figure leaves Donald Cerrone out at 3.50 with Bet365. The barest tale of the tape shows us that ‘The Notorious’ McGregor has won 21 of his 25 MMA fights while Cowboy Cerrone has claimed 36 victories in 50 outings.
Percentage-wise, those stats make it hard to look beyond the favourite but there are two questions. McGregor is returning from that absence so can we really be certain as to what to expect? Pressure could also tell: Win and the Irishman can look ahead to lucrative match-ups with the likes of Nurmagomedov, Masvidal or Usman but if he loses, it could be the end for this colourful character.
The Method of Victory market is one of the most popular alternatives to the result and it could be a way for Conor McGregor backers to find a little more value. The Notorious leads the way here and by betting on McGregor to win by KO, TKO or Disqualification, you can claim odds of 1.57 with Sports Interaction.
Alternatively, Mcgregor to win by points or technical decision is quoted at 8.75 with Bodog. If you’re looking for an upset in this fight, Cerrone to win by KO, TKO or Disqualification is quoted at 5.50 with Sports Interaction. One option that may interest punters is for Cerrone to win the fight by submission and that can be picked up at 9.00 with 888Sport. McGregor has lost four bouts across his entire MMA career and all of those have been by submission.
Other prop bets show some interesting prices for total rounds and our preference is go Over the 2.5 line with Bet365. Odds for this are generous at 2.62 and we’ll explain our reasons in the verdict. The sportsbooks don’t necessarily share that opinion with Sports Interaction offering just 1.44 for Under 2.5 rounds but we think that Conor McGregor will need to be patient as he returns to the Octagon after an extended absence.
Does that need for patience mean that the fight will go the distance? We think that’s unlikely but 888Sport are quoting a tempting price of 5.00 if that is the case.
Donald Cerrone’s record shows that he’s not the best fighter in this match but he’s no mug either. Can we really expect McGregor to finish this quickly after such an extended break? The favourite is also appearing in the welterweight division for the first time and all of these factors suggest it may take time to grind the Cowboy down.
Six of McGregor’s opening seven wins in UFC came before the end of the third round but that trend has slowed, even before that 2019 ‘retirement’. Cerrone is competent enough to make us wait so by all means back Conor McGregor but don’t expect it to be swift.
- McGregor to win by KO, TKO or Disqualification at 1.57 with Sports Interaction
- Over 2.5 Rounds in the Fight at 2.62 with Bet365